Random thoughts: Why I’m voting for MMP

The biggest reason – and one that reveals our voting system’s most glaring fault – is that I believe the distribution of legislative seats should accurately reflects the people’s will. First-past-the-post rarely does that; you might call it a fluke if it actually does. The party that receives the most votes should form the government. Simple enough?

Well, with FPP, the opposite happens too often. The B.C. Liberals know this well. In 1996 they earned 37,000 more votes than the NDP, which equated to six fewer seats. The second-place New Democrats continued to govern, with a majority of seats no less. Of course, B.C.’s experience is not an isolated one. As long as we stick with FPP we’ll be unable to guarantee that the most popular party will actually form the government. That’s hardly democratic.

Voter turnout will increase over time thanks to a sense of voter empowerment. It’s hard to guarantee this, and I certainly wouldn’t put my life’s savings on the line on this one, but my gut tells me this is so. Here’s how I see it happening: slowly but surely, over a few general elections, voters will realize it’s not wasteful to mark an X beside the Green or New Democratic candidate. They will see that their support for a particular party has a real impact. And of course, the number of parties will increase, better reflecting the variety of political views held by voters. With a wider selection of political offerings, the odds are increased that voters will find a party they can support – in others words, a party that is worth the trip from the couch to the voting booth.

Other reasons: i) more moderate governments featuring fewer wild swings of the political pendulum. ii) greater diversity (female and ethnic) in the legislature thanks to list members.

More random thoughts: many opponents of MMP fear the system would bring an end to big tent, inclusive political parties. Certainly, Liberals and Conservatives would have to watch as some of their support was siphoned off by small, upstart parties. However, demand in the political market for broadly-based parties would remain strong (see my post below on New Zealand and MMP. The country’s two large parties still garner 80 per cent of the popular vote).

Big tent parties are often praised for their ability to merge and synthesize the interests of their numerous supporters. This would continue under MMP thanks to the existence of big tent parties, but at the same time the synthesizing process would happen at a different level through the formation of party coalitions. As many perceptive folks have noted, we should not expect that current party structures will remain intact. The NDP may not survive as the NDP we know today; its left wing will likely strike out on its own.

Side notes: quite a few MMP proponents are mighty ticked that the referendum has a super majority threshold (60 per cent popular vote and simple majority in 60 per cent of the province’s ridings). I’ve got to say that the threshold is just fine with me. In fact, it’s entirely warranted. Changing our electoral system is at least as equally important as changing the constitution. If MMP wins the day (don’t hold your breath!), then any future vote to reverse the decision should also employ a super majority.

Finally, here’s a prognostication. At the most, MMP will receive 35-39 per cent of the popular vote come Wednesday. I’d be floored if it did any better than this. The Star’s Ian Urquhart has speculated that MMP might sneak through the back door because voters are fairly ignorant of the proposition. He based this assumption on the B.C. experience. However, Ontarians tend towards conservatism, and instead of choosing change for the sake of change they’re more likely to stick with the status quo. ‘If it ain’t broken, why fix it?’ is what will be running through the mind of the typical voter as he stares down at his referendum ballot.

I sound cynical, sure. But I do have reason for hope. I’m taking a historical view of how voting reform will unfold in this country. Here’s how I see it: some province (hello B.C.) will adopt PR within the next 5-10 years and serve as an example for the rest of the country. Of course, we’ll all watch closely, especially in Ontario since we’ve been introduced to the concept of electoral reform via the current referendum. All goes fairly well in the province(s) with PR and the desire for change increases nationally. Ontarians, one day, see the light, probably within a decade of the lead province.

So, don’t fret MMP proponents! The referendum hasn’t been a lost cause. It’s a building block for the future.